Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
