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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However the current competition is distinctly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. In an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still